SPX 0DTE Credit Spread Research: Morning Trend Trades (90-Day Study)

This post is part of an ongoing SPX 0DTE options trading research series where we track repeatable, rules-based credit spread signals using real market data.

The focus of this update is time of day + intraday trend direction, specifically examining how SPX 0DTE credit spreads have performed when entered during the 10:30am ET window over the last 90 days.

Rather than optimizing after the fact, this research looks at consistent signals, logged automatically, to identify where probabilities have historically been strongest.

What This SPX 0DTE Research Is Testing

This study looks at a very specific and repeatable setup:

• SPX 0DTE credit spreads
• Entered in the direction of the intraday trend
• Trend measured using the SPX 5-minute chart
• Signals evaluated at specific time windows
• Same general strike logic applied consistently (Delta ~25 used for examples)

There is no discretionary filtering and no hindsight optimization. If the conditions were present at the time, the signal was logged and included in the dataset.

The goal is not to find a perfect trade, but to understand when SPX 0DTE credit spreads have historically had better odds.

Why the 10:30am Time Window Matters for SPX Options

The 10:30am ET window sits in an interesting part of the trading day:

• The open volatility has started to settle
• Initial market direction is often established
• Liquidity is still strong
• There is enough time remaining in the session for trend continuation

While earlier windows such as 10:00am or 10:15am can also perform well, 10:30am tends to balance clarity of trend with practical execution, which is why it was selected for this focused analysis.

Importantly, this window was not chosen because it “won the most” — it stood out because it consistently ranked near the top across multiple strike distances.

SPX 0DTE Credit Spread Results (Last 90 Days)

Using a rolling 90-day dataset, here’s what the results showed when trades were entered at the 10:30am time window.

Put Credit Spreads When the Trend Is Bullish

• 26 total trades
• 0 losses
• 100% expired worthless using a Delta ~25 reference

Whenever the SPX trend was bullish at 10:30am, a put credit spread was logged and tracked through expiration.

Call Credit Spreads When the Trend Is Bearish

• 24 total trades
• 1 loss
• Same Delta ~25 reference used

When the trend was bearish at the same time window, a call credit spread was logged instead.

Morning Time Windows Stand Out Overall

Beyond just the 10:30am window, the broader dataset shows a clear pattern:

• Morning trades have higher win rates
• Trend-following spreads perform better earlier in the day
• Delta 20 and Delta 15 references show similar behavior, with higher win rates further out of the money

When averaging results across multiple deltas, the 10:30am window produced a ~94% win rate, placing it among the strongest time slots in the dataset.

This does not mean other times are “bad,” but it does suggest that morning trend behavior in SPX often persists longer than expected.

How the Alpha Crunching Trend Spread Engine Works

All of the data used in this study comes from the Trend Spread Engine at AlphaCrunching.com.

Here’s how it works at a high level:

• The SPX trend is evaluated every 15 minutes
• If the trend is up, a put credit spread is logged
• If the trend is down, a call credit spread is logged
• Every signal is recorded into a database posted live on the Discord server
• Results are tracked through expiration
• Rolling reports are generated to identify high-probability time windows

This approach allows for objective SPX 0DTE research without manual cherry-picking. The focus is on building a growing dataset that highlights repeatable behavior, not one-off outcomes.

What This Means for SPX 0DTE Traders

This research is not suggesting there is a single “best” time of day to trade SPX 0DTE options.

What it does suggest is:

• Time of day matters
• Trend alignment matters
• Morning conditions tend to be more reliable
• Combining time + trend may improve consistency

Rather than trading all day or reacting to noise, narrowing focus to high-probability windows can simplify execution and decision-making.

As always, risk management and trade management still matter. This data simply provides context around where the odds have historically been better.

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